Source

There are about one million job vacancies and slightly more than one million people unemployed as country heads towards a potentially record -low jobless rate

Economic forecasting is a complex business at the best of times, but trying to read the portents of a global economy in recovery from a pandemic has made it even more complicated.

“This is one of the more complex economic environments certainly encountered in my career as an economist,” Douglas Porter, chief economist for BMO Financial Group, said Feb. 1 during a session on financial and commodity markets at the Association of Mineral (AME) Roundup conference in Vancouver.

Generally, the signs are good, though the signals may be complicated somewhat by things economists have not had to factor in for decades, like high inflation and high employment.

One of the biggest stories of 2022 for the economy is going to be employment – high employment, that is, Porter said

“We have a very serious imbalance on the labour market front,” he said. “Right now in the U.S. we’ve got almost 11 million open jobs, whereas the amount of people counted as officially unemployed are less than 7 million.

“So we’ve got way more open jobs than we do have people unemployed. Historically, that kind of imbalance points due north for wages, and we are starting to see wage pressures mount in the U.S.”

In Canada, there are about 1 million job vacancies, though slightly more than 1 million people unemployed.

“We are starting to see wage pressures begin to build in Canada as well,” Porter said.

“We think that, by later this year, we could be looking at the lowest jobless rate that we’ve seen in more than 50 years in both Canada and the U.S.,” Porter said.

Though a global pandemic hasn’t been officially declared over yet, financial markets are operating as though it has., he added.

“Even with the ripple that we’ve seen in equity markets since the start of the year, largely speaking financial markets are still pointing towards relatively robust growth as we go through this year,” Porter said.

Commodities have been on fire since mid-2021, with everything from oil to lumber soaring. High oil prices in particular are helping drive up the consumer price index, and home prices that spiked roughly 20 per cent in the past year in Canada and the U.S. will also feed the inflationary fires.

“This is not just a North American story,” Porter said. “We are seeing strong gains in consumer prices almost across the emerging market and most of the advanced world. Even Japan, which has been looking at deflation, arguably, for about 30 years, is actually seeing inflation of almost 1 per cent, which is relatively high for Japan.”

U.S. inflation rates are among the highest, at 7 per cent.

Benchmark oil prices are well above US$85 per barrel. Porter said he thinks crude oil prices will settle around the US$75 to US$80 per barrel range. Even so, BMO expects inflation to linger longer than some economists initially predicted.

“Even with more moderate oil prices, with an improved supply chain situation, we are still looking at inflation in the range of 2.5 per cent to 3 per cent in Canada and the U.S. by late 2023, well above the sub 2 per cent trend that we were seeing before the pandemic began.

Housing prices will likely continue to add to inflationary pressure, Porter said.

“Even if some of the reopening pressures do fade over the next year, even if oil pressures do stabilize, and even if the supply issues do improve, there is still some sting in the tail from wages and housing that could lead to firmer inflation lasting for some time.”

By Chris Seepe – Source

I recently looked at the government’s substantial revenue stream from investment properties and realized that government has an affordable housing conflict of interest. The more affordable the housing, the less affordable it is to government.

After reviewing the many taxes government places on housing, I have no confidence that anyone in government and any “lettered” people who consult for government will come up with an actionable list that will combat affordability. Landlords must protect themselves against the ever-present onslaught of creative new tax schemes that effectively do only one thing – increase the costs of housing. Here’s how you or your owner-client can improve your property’s affordability:

• Suite-meter everything, especially electricity. Do it yourself. Don’t use a third-party provider. Every dollar you save in utility cost is $20+ of equity.
• Replace old gas appliances. Savings from lower consumption pays reasonably quick returns.
• Never rent or lease hot water tanks. Own them outright. “Peace of mind” lease plans cost three to five times more than replacing end-of-life tanks.
• Some municipalities force you to lease your water meter. They then install a larger-than-needed meter and charge a higher lease rate. Check if a lower volume meter can be used.
• Offer a large incentive (such as four months’ rent) to low-paying tenants to move out. Increasing your rent with a new tenant by, say, $400/month, can add $96,000 equity (at a five-per-cent cap rate).
• Increasing your insurance deductible to perhaps $5,000 may notably reduce your premium, provided all expensive perils are covered.
• Replace all incandescent and fluorescent lightbulbs with LED bulbs, which consume one-sixth the electricity.
• Separate out parking from rent. Why should the tenant benefit from renting out an unneeded parking space? Provide an upscale tenant with two parking spots.
• Maximize coin-op machine laundry fees. A 25-cent increase might increase laundry income 20 per cent or at least defray rising water, electricity and gas costs.
• Apply for an Above Guideline Increase when making a notable capital investment, or if investing for the first time in security features, or if property tax increases notably.
• For some owners, incorporate an “active income” property management company. Pay that company property management fees and expense it in the investment property’s “passive income” to save taxes.
• Maintain a minimum 25 per cent equity. A one-per-cent increase in cap rate could mean a 16-per-cent decrease in property value. A two-per-cent increase in the interest rate may equal a 100-per-cent increase in interest expense and cause your property to negatively cash flow.
• As long as there’s rent control, increase the rent every 12 months by the maximum allowed. Never bypass this opportunity. Not taking 2021’s 1.2-per-cent guideline increase of, say $50/month is a $12,000 equity loss … per tenant.
• Make your mortgage payments on the 10th of each month. This uses the current month’s cash flow to pay the mortgage rather than always maintaining a minimum bank balance to cover late rent payers and those who pay on the first.
• No smokers or pets. Both substantially ruin property value and substantially increase renovation costs with no upside benefit.
• Be zealous in your tenant qualification process. Better vacant than a claimant. Evictions take a year now with no chance of recovering rent arrears.
• Ontario’s Standard Tenancy Agreement is heavily tenant-biased. Add your own clauses. I added 78 clauses.
  Offer an early rent payment discount so that you can charge the “late fee” if they don’t pay on time. Set the “lawful rent” to two per cent above what you want. Then charge the lawful rent amount, not the usual discounted amount if they pay late.
• Don’t “top up” the last month’s rent (LMR) at year-end and don’t the pay interest on that LMR.
  With each vacancy, test the rent rate. Overprice the unit and drop the price weekly until you find the ideal applicant.
• Don’t rent to anyone who’ll stay more than five years. The equity loss from long-term renters is devastating. Rent control wipes out long-term (retirement) investment.
• Can you rent your building wall for advertising? Add a cell tower? Rent an unused garage?
• Don’t rent storage lockers. Convert the space into a rental unit. The income-per-square-foot for a rental unit may be five times higher.
• Don’t allow tenants to use any utility-guzzling appliances unless they’re paying the utility bills.
• Savings from low-volume toilets will pay for the toilets, usually in under three years.
• Insulate hot water tanks and pipes. Savings could be two to five per cent of your bill.
• Install a separate electric hot water tank in every rental unit and connect it to the tenant’s electrical panel. Tenants won’t take half-hour showers.
• Repair running toilets and dripping sinks immediately. One running toilet may double your monthly water bill.
• Investigate solar panels. Cost recovery is less than seven years. Enjoy reduced electricity costs for 30+ years.
• Investigate grey-water use in toilets. Can you channel collected rainwater into the toilet reservoirs? Toilets consume 35 per cent of total home water use.

My operative saying: $1 of NOI (“noy” or net operating income) is $20 of joy (equity increase).

Source

Pandemic accelerated value of home ownership at luxury price points to new heights in major Canadian centres in 2021

Demand for Canadian luxury real estate shifted into high-gear from coast to coast in 2021 as both domestic and non-resident consumption of tangible assets, such as homes, reached new levels, according to a report released today by RE/MAX Canada.

“The currency of home ownership has clearly taken on a new dimension in 2021,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Canadians are moving to secure their future. The pandemic fuelled a run on real estate that has encompassed every segment of the market, and the value of housing has increased exponentially as a result–not only as a form of shelter but a desirable asset class that provides an attractive return on investment.”

The RE/MAX 2022 Luxury Market Report examined Canadian luxury real estate trends and developments in freehold and condominium sales over $3 million in Metro Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), and tracked sales over $1 million in 17 additional markets including Victoria, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Winnipeg, London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, Barrie, Kingston, Ottawa, Halifax-Dartmouth, Moncton, Saint John, Charlottetown and St. John’s.

According to an analysis of sales provided by RE/MAX brokers and agents based on local real estate board data, RE/MAX Canada found that 18 of the 19 markets recorded percentage increases in the double and triple digits. The greatest appreciation occurred in smaller urban markets such as Barrie, London, Kitchener-Waterloo and Hamilton, where sales of homes priced over $1 million have climbed 517.8 per cent, 255.1 per cent, 208 per cent and 199.5 per cent respectively. Canada’s largest markets for luxury product – the Greater Toronto Area and Metro Vancouver – experienced increases of 112.8 per cent and 75.8 per cent respectively for homes over the $3-million price point, while transactions of homes priced over $10 million rose a substantial 156 per cent and 167 per cent respectively. The only outlier was Charlottetown, where sales over $1 million declined to four units, down from seven unit sales one year earlier.

“As high as these numbers are, we believe they just scratch the surface,” says Alexander. “In our view, these levels likely do not truly reflect what is happening in markets across the country, given an abundance of exclusive sales and in white-hot markets such as Toronto, instances of private sales where buyers approach sellers whose listings have expired.”

Last year marked the continuation of a pandemic-fuelled buying spree that started in 2020, shattering existing records for Canadian luxury real estate sales and in some instances, price points from coast to coast.

“Despite a third and fourth wave of Covid-19 in 2021, real estate markets continued to rattle and hum,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Tight inventory levels were prevalent in at least half of the markets we surveyed and contributed to an uptick in values across much of the country.”

RE/MAX brokers who were surveyed for the report attributed the increase in luxury activity to abundant economic drivers, as the national roll-out of the vaccines continued. Stock markets rallied, with the TSX, the S&P and the Nasdaq reporting some of their best years on record. Interest rates remained at historically low levels. GDP growth for the year is estimated at 4.5 per cent in 2021 as businesses returned to pandemic norms–including hybrid schedules—restaurants, bars, gyms, sports venues and theatres finally opened their doors.

Trade-up activity was brisk in most markets, as buyers cashed in on substantial equity gains realized when selling their existing properties.

“More so than ever before, it appears that buying a home is a retirement strategy, which many people believe will help the next generation achieve home ownership,” says Ash.

Real estate has traditionally been an essential asset class in the investment portfolios of ultra-high net worth individuals, usually comprised of multi-unit residential, commercial, industrial, and land. Residential performance, however, has been undeniable over the past decade, and that has generated global attention. Financial communities have also tapped into the trend, with Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) now investing in single-family residential housing in the US and to a lesser extent, Canada.

Canadian Luxury Real Estate Highlights

• Luxury home-buying activity is spilling into smaller centres where the dollar goes further. While the pandemic accelerated the trend, bigger bang for the buck is likely to continue to draw purchasers from larger centres, particularly in Ontario. Inventory is reaching critical levels in markets like London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, Barrie, Kingston and Ottawa.
• Home sales are pushing into higher price points across the country. The luxury segment over $3 million represents approximately four per cent of total sales in Metro Vancouver and 1.8 per cent of sales in the GTA. Sales over $1 million in Halifax-Dartmouth represent 2.2 per cent of total sales.
• Records were broken for luxury sales over $3 million in the Greater Toronto Area in 2021, while Metro Vancouver fell short of 2016 record levels by just over 200 sales.
• Condominium sales over the $3 million price point in the GTA and Metro Vancouver have rebounded from 2020, setting a new record in the GTA and matching the existing record set in 2016 in Metro Vancouver. The GTA saw 106 condominium units sold in 2021, an increase of 82.8 per cent over 2020 levels, while 144 units changed hands in Metro Vancouver, up 44 per cent over the previous year.
• RE/MAX brokers have reported an upswing in non-resident buyers in Metro Vancouver and Halifax-Dartmouth in 2021, however domestic buyers continue to drive luxury sales in the Greater Toronto Area.
• An increase in young entrepreneurs has been noted in the GTA, with some utilizing crypto-currency gains to make their way into the housing market. Family wealth has also contributed to the increase in luxury home sales, with many parents freeing up the reins so the kids can enjoy the fruits of their labour.
• Non-resident buyers are returning to Canada’s residential housing markets, despite the existence of three taxes aimed at foreign ownership in Metro Vancouver – the 20-per-cent Foreign Buyer Tax, the two-per-cent Speculation and Vacancy Tax (SVT), and the three-per-cent Empty Home Tax and the 15-per-cent Non-Resident Speculation Tax targeting sales in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe Area.
• Sales of building lots have declined at the top end as buyers are reluctant to embark on construction when costs are unclear, labour is hard to find, and supply chain disruptions can add years to the custom-building process.
• Inventory is balanced over the $3 million price point in Metro Vancouver while just 200 such homes are currently listed for sale in Toronto proper. Supply levels are exceptionally low in 50 per cent of markets surveyed for this report, including the GTA, Victoria, Kelowna, London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, Barrie, Kingston and Ottawa.

About the 2022 Luxury Market Report
The 2022 RE/MAX Canada Luxury Market Report analyzed 19 Canadian luxury real estate markets, using data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents were surveyed on market activity and local developments based on local real estate board data and market activity in 2020 and 2021.

Source

The REALTOR® Association of Edmonton is reporting a 27.6% decrease in month-over-month sales from November to December. Total sales in December hit 1319 compared to 1823 the month before. The average price declined slightly month-over-month, down 0.6%, and now sits at $382,000. Both months of inventory and days on market rose month-over-month, now sitting at 3.4 and 52 DOM, respectively.

Other RAE Highlights:

Total sales from January to June (Q1 & Q2) totaled 13,551 while total sales from July to December (Q3 & Q4) totaled 11,155.

Year-over-year average price rose to $385,000 in 2021 from $363,000 in 2020.

Source

Confidence continues in Canadian real estate market, with the inter-provincial relocation trend likely to remain strong in 2022

• Migration between provinces expected to continue in 2022, potentially impacting local Canadian real estate conditions, according to 53 per cent of RE/MAX brokers (20 out of 38)
• 49 per cent of Canadians believe the housing market will remain steady in 2022 and view real estate as one of the best investment options over the next year
• Some of the highest outlooks are anticipated for Atlantic Canada, with Moncton and Halifax projecting average residential sales prices to increase by 20 per cent and 16 per cent respectively in 2022
• 97 per cent of regions (37 out of 38) surveyed are likely to remain seller’s markets in 2022

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, December 1, 2021 – RE/MAX is anticipating steady price growth across the Canadian real estate market in 2022, with inter-provincial migration continuing to be a key driver of housing activity in many regions, based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents, as reflected in the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. The ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, putting upward pressure on prices. As a result of these factors, RE/MAX Canada estimates a 9.2-per-cent increase in average residential sales prices across the country*.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT

“Based on feedback from our brokers and agents, the inter-provincial relocation trend that we began to see in the summer of 2020 still remains very strong and is expected to continue into 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Less-dense cities and neighbourhoods offer buyers the prospect of greater affordability, along with liveability factors such as more space. In order for these regions to retain these appealing qualities and their relative market balance, housing supply needs to be added. Without more homes and in the face of rising demand, there’s potential for conditions in these regions to shift further.”

Despite the global pandemic, many Canadians still feel confident in the real estate market. According to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 49 per cent of respondents believe Canadian real estate will remain one of their best investment options in 2022 (59 per cent of homeowners vs. 34 per cent non-homeowners which included renters, those not looking buy, and those currently looking to purchase). Additionally, 49 per cent of respondents are confident the Canadian real estate market will remain steady next year.

“Canadians recognize the value and investment potential in their homes. However, market challenges such as rising prices and limited supply have impacted local markets from coast-to-coast, causing angst this past year among those looking to get into the market and those hoping to move up in it,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Despite this, it’s encouraging to see that many are feeling confident in the housing market in 2022 and view Canadian real estate as a solid investment.”

2022 Regional Canadian Real Estate Insights

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market in 2021 and share their estimated outlook for 2022. Based on their insights, 97 per cent of Canadian real estate markets are expected to favour sellers, impacted by limited housing supply and high demand.

WESTERN CANADA

The Calgary and Edmonton markets shifted from balanced conditions in 2020 to seller’s markets in 2021, which brokers and agents in the region expect to continue into 2022. This is attributed to heightened demand prompted by the inter-provincial migration trend that took place throughout 2021, which saw many homebuyers from Ontario and British Columbia driving demand high, while supply remained low.

In addition to an increase in out-of-province buyers flocking to Edmonton, the region has also welcomed investors who found themselves priced out of other markets. RBC’s provincial outlook for Alberta puts this province ahead of all others in terms of economic growth in 2022, which should bode well for homebuyers and investors alike 2022.

Regions such as Victoria, Nanaimo, Regina and Kelowna also experienced an influx of buyers in search of larger properties and greater affordability, which is likely to continue pushing demand and prices up in 2022. This trend has notably increased demand for single-family detached homes and in some regions, condos as well, which may continue in 2022.

Despite some buyers choosing to move away from urban centres such as Vancouver/Greater Vancouver in favour of suburban areas within British Columbia, or leaving the province entirely, Vancouver/Greater Vancouver has remained a quality place to live. The region continues to draw interest from Canadian and international buyers, a trend that is likely to grow next year, in tandem with rising immigration. Vancouver/Greater Vancouver is expected to remain a seller’s market in 2022, providing inventory stays tight and current demand continues, according to a RE/MAX broker in Greater Vancouver Area.

Winnipeg is anticipated to continue to be a seller’s market in 2022. Young couples enjoying the freedom to work from home have been driving much of the demand in the region, especially for one- and two-story detached homes. The appeal of Winnipeg has had less to do with affordability, and more with lifestyle shifts such as hybrid working environments.

Additional findings from the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report

• Two-in-five Canadians trust their agent to advise them during the current real estate landscape (43 per cent)
• 23 per cent of Canadians now have a greater desire to build their own home or buy pre-construction
• 26 per cent of Canadians have the desire to purchase a home while mortgage rates remain low
• 62 per cent of Canadians currently own a home. This is higher among those ages 35+ (70 per cent) compared with Millennials, ages 18-34 (42 per cent)
• The majority of Canadians (72 per cent) said rising home prices did not impact their purchasing decisions in 2021.

About the 2022 Housing Market Outlook Report
The 2022 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transaction in each region.

*2020 average residential sale price numbers were full-year, 2021 were from January 2021 – October 31, 2022.